How safe is safe enough? Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), also called Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), has been very effective in supporting better decisions on how to manage safety by making the risks involved, the contributors, and the options for controlling the risk transparent; and, quantifying the uncertainties, the primary contributor to rare event risk. Moreover, a new generation of methodologies, often referred to as Dynamic PRA (DPRA) or simulation-based PRA, is starting to receive attention for nuclear reactor PRA. These methodologies explicitly account for the time element in the probabilistic system evolution, quantify the effects of phenomenological variability and uncertainties, and are driven by plant analysis tools (e.g., RELAP, MAAP5) to model possible dependencies among failure events that may arise from hardware/software/human interactions. They have shown great promise in reducing user-to-user analysis variability, modeling passive safety systems, aging effects, and human performance. This workshop will cover the principles of PRA, hands-on examples, as well as brief reviews of recent developments in simulation-based PRA methodologies.

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