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  With a new administration and Congress, it is time once again to ponder what will happen—if anything—on U.S. spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste management policy over the next few years. One element of the forthcoming discussion seems clear: The executive and legislative branches are eager to talk about recycling commercial SNF. Whatever the merits of doing so, it does not obviate the need for one or more facilities for disposal of remaining long-lived radionuclides. For that reason, making progress on U.S. disposal capabilities remains urgent, lest the associated radionuclide inventories simply be left for future generations to deal with.
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This paper discusses liquid-fuel molten salt reactors, how they will operate under normal, transient, and accident conditions, and the results of an expert elicitation to determine the corresponding neutronic phenomena important to understanding their behavior. Identifying these phenomena will enable the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to develop or identify modeling functionalities and tools required to carry out confirmatory analyses that examine the validity and accuracy of applicants’ calculations and help determine the margin of safety in plant design. NRC frequently does an expert elicitation using a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) to identify and evaluate the state of knowledge of important modeling phenomena. However, few details about the design of these reactors and the sequence of events during accidents are known, so the process used was considered a preliminary PIRT. A panel met to define phenomena that would need to be modeled and considered the impact/importance of each phenomenon with respect to specific figures-of-merit (FoMs) (e.g., power distribution, fluence, kinetics parameters and reactivity). Each FoM reflected a potential impact on radionuclide release or loss of a barrier to release. The panel considered what the path forward might be with respect to being able to model the phenomenon in a simulation code. Results are explained for both thermal and fast spectrum designs.