Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Plutonium and Cesium Isotopes in Modeling of BR3 Reactor Spent Fuel

Nuclear forensics has a broad task to characterize recovered nuclear or radiological material and interpret the results of investigation. One approach to isotopic characterization of nuclear material obtained from a reactor is to chemically separate and perform isotopic measurements on the sample and verify the results with modeling of the sample history, for example, operation of a nuclear reactor. The major actinide plutonium and fission product cesium are commonly measured signatures of the fuel history in a reactor core. This study investigates the uncertainty of the plutonium and cesium isotope ratios of a fuel rod discharged from a research pressurized water reactor when the location of the sample is not known a priori. A sensitivity analysis showed overpredicted values for the ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu ratio toward the axial center of the rod and revealed a lower probability of the rod of interest (ROI) being on the periphery of the assembly. The uncertainty analysis found the relative errors due to only the rod position and boron concentration to be 17% to 36% and 7% to 15% for the ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu and ¹³⁷Cs/¹³⁵Cs ratios, respectively. This study provides a method for uncertainty quantification of isotope concentrations due to the location of the ROI. Similar analyses can be performed to verify future chemical and isotopic analyses.