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The busyness of the nuclear fuel supply chain
Ken Petersenpresident@ans.org
With all that is happening in the industry these days, the nuclear fuel supply chain is still a hot topic. The Russian assault in Ukraine continues to upend the “where” and “how” of attaining nuclear fuel—and it has also motivated U.S. legislators to act.
Two years into the Russian war with Ukraine, things are different. The Inflation Reduction Act was passed in 2022, authorizing $700 million in funding to support production of high-assay low-enriched uranium in the United States. Meanwhile, the Department of Energy this January issued a $500 million request for proposals to stimulate new HALEU production. The Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2024 includes $2.7 billion in funding for new uranium enrichment production. This funding was diverted from the Civil Nuclear Credits program and will only be released if there is a ban on importing Russian uranium into the United States—which could happen by the time this column is published, as legislation that bans Russian uranium has passed the House as of this writing and is headed for the Senate. Also being considered is legislation that would sanction Russian uranium. Alternatively, the Biden-Harris administration may choose to ban Russian uranium without legislation in order to obtain access to the $2.7 billion in funding.
A. Chandrakar, A. K. Nayak, Vinod Gopika
Nuclear Technology | Volume 194 | Number 1 | April 2016 | Pages 39-60
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NT15-80
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Research in the field of passive system reliability analysis is garnering sharp interest in the nuclear community. Passive systems are being utilized extensively in current- and future-generation reactors for their normal operations as well as for safety critical operations during any accidental conditions. In this paper, we present a methodology called Analysis of Passive System ReliAbility Plus (APSRA+) for evaluating reliability of passive systems. This methodology is an improved version of the existing APSRA methodology. The methodology has been applied to the passive isolation condenser system (ICS) of the AHWR (Advanced Heavy Water Reactor). With the help of the APSRA+ methodology, the probability of the passive ICS failing to maintain the clad temperature under 400°C is estimated to be of the order 1×10−10.
Important features of APSRA+ are the following. First, it provides an integrated dynamic reliability method for the consistent treatment of dynamic failure characteristics such as multistate failure, fault increment, and time-dependent failure rate of components of passive systems. Second, this methodology overcomes the issue of process parameter treatment by just the probability density function or by root cause analysis, by segregating the parameters into dependent and independent process parameters and then giving a proper treatment to each of them separately. Third, the methodology treats the model uncertainties and independent process parameter variations in a consistent manner.
In APSRA+, the important parameters affecting the passive system under consideration are identified using sensitivity analysis. To evaluate the system performance, a best-estimate system code is used with due consideration of the uncertainties in empirical models. A failure surface is generated by varying all the identified important parameters; variation from the nominal values of these parameters affects the system performance significantly. These parameters are then segregated into dependent and independent categories. For dependent parameters, it is attributed that the variations of process parameters are mainly due to malfunction of mechanical components or control systems, and hence, root cause analysis is performed. The probability of these dependent parameter variations is estimated using a dynamic reliability methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation. The dynamic failure characteristics of the identified causal component/system are accounted for in calculating these probabilities. For the treatment of independent process parameters, using APSRA+ suggests adopting and integrating classical data-fitting techniques or mathematical models. In the next steps, a response surface-based metamodel is formulated using the generated failure points. The probability of the system being in the failure zone is estimated by sampling and analyzing a sufficiently large number of samples for all the dependent and independent process parameters based on the probability of variations of these parameters, which were estimated using dynamic reliability methodology.