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Proving DRACO will deliver
The United States is now closer than it has been in over five decades to launching the first nuclear thermal rocket into space, thanks to DRACO—the Demonstration Rocket for Agile Cislunar Orbit.
François Bachoc, Guillaume Bois, Josselin Garnier, Jean-Marc Martinez
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 176 | Number 1 | January 2014 | Pages 81-97
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE12-55
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
This paper addresses the use of experimental data for calibrating a computer model and improving its predictions of the underlying physical system. A global statistical approach is proposed in which the bias between the computer model and the physical system is modeled as a realization of a Gaussian process. The application of classical statistical inference to this statistical model yields a rigorous method for calibrating the computer model and for adding to its predictions a statistical correction based on experimental data. This statistical correction can substantially improve the calibrated computer model for predicting the physical system on new experimental conditions. Furthermore, a quantification of the uncertainty of this prediction is provided. Physical expertise on the calibration parameters can also be taken into account in a Bayesian framework. Finally, the method is applied to the thermal-hydraulic code FLICA 4, in a single-phase friction model framework. It allows significant improvement of the predictions of FLICA 4.