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2025 ANS Winter Conference & Expo
November 9–12, 2025
Washington, DC|Washington Hilton
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IAEA again raises global nuclear power projections
Noting recent momentum behind nuclear power, the International Atomic Energy Agency has revised up its projections for the expansion of nuclear power, estimating that global nuclear operational capacity will more than double by 2050—reaching 2.6 times the 2024 level—with small modular reactors expected to play a pivotal role in this high-case scenario.
IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the new projections, contained in the annual report Energy, Electricity, and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 at the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna.
In the report’s high-case scenario, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to from 377 GW at the end of 2024 to 992 GW by 2050. In a low-case scenario, capacity rises 50 percent, compared with 2024, to 561 GW. SMRs are projected to account for 24 percent of the new capacity added in the high case and for 5 percent in the low case.
Alberto Talamo
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 156 | Number 3 | July 2007 | Pages 343-356
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE07-A2704
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
In the present studies we performed the analytical calculation of the average Dancoff factor for prismatic high-temperature reactors; in this type of core, the fuel elements consist of small fuel grains (TRISO particles) randomly dispersed in a moderator (graphite) matrix and confined to a cylindrical volume (fuel pin). By definition, the Dancoff factor is the probability that a neutron leaving a fuel kernel hits uncollided another fuel kernel in the same fuel pin, which represents the intrapin contribution, or in another pin, which represents the interpin contribution. Similar studies have already been performed for pebble bed high-temperature reactors, where spheres (fuel pebbles) play the role of the cylinders; consequently, we retained the physical model describing an infinite lattice of unit cells, each containing a pair of concentric spheres, where the inner sphere is filled with a mixture of fuel grains and moderator and the outer one is filled with pure moderator, and we derived the mathematical model for the case of concentric cylinders. The physical model is grounded on the chord theory and the concept of a pseudo cross section; the latter takes into account, when the medium consists of moderator and small fuel grains, the probability, per unit path length, that a neutron either collides with a moderator nucleus or hits a fuel surface. The above method possesses a general validity, and it is suitable for the treatment of spheres (fuel pebbles), cylinders (fuel pins), or cuboids (fuel prisms) filled by moderator and small fuel grains.The predictions of the analytical method well match the results of the MCNP code; nevertheless, since in the case of prismatic cores the mathematical model involves the calculation of complicated double integrals, the CPU time required by the two different methods becomes comparable.