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Division Spotlight
Nuclear Criticality Safety
NCSD provides communication among nuclear criticality safety professionals through the development of standards, the evolution of training methods and materials, the presentation of technical data and procedures, and the creation of specialty publications. In these ways, the division furthers the exchange of technical information on nuclear criticality safety with the ultimate goal of promoting the safe handling of fissionable materials outside reactors.
Meeting Spotlight
Conference on Nuclear Training and Education: A Biennial International Forum (CONTE 2023)
February 6–9, 2023
Amelia Island, FL|Omni Amelia Island Resort
Standards Program
The Standards Committee is responsible for the development and maintenance of voluntary consensus standards that address the design, analysis, and operation of components, systems, and facilities related to the application of nuclear science and technology. Find out What’s New, check out the Standards Store, or Get Involved today!
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Nuclear Science and Engineering
February 2023
Nuclear Technology
Fusion Science and Technology
January 2023
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Nuclear energy: enabling production of food, fiber, hydrocarbon biofuels, and negative carbon emissions
In the 1960s, Alvin Weinberg at Oak Ridge National Laboratory initiated a series of studies on nuclear agro-industrial complexes1 to address the needs of the world’s growing population. Agriculture was a central component of these studies, as it must be. Much of the emphasis was on desalination of seawater to provide fresh water for irrigation of crops. Remarkable advances have lowered the cost of desalination to make that option viable in countries like Israel. Later studies2 asked the question, are there sufficient minerals (potassium, phosphorous, copper, nickel, etc.) to enable a prosperous global society assuming sufficient nuclear energy? The answer was a qualified “yes,” with the caveat that mineral resources will limit some technological options. These studies were defined by the characteristic of looking across agricultural and industrial sectors to address multiple challenges using nuclear energy.
Giovanni Maronati, Bojan Petrovic
Nuclear Technology | Volume 207 | Number 1 | January 2021 | Pages 1-18
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.1080/00295450.2020.1738829
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Credibility requires predictability. Nuclear power plant (NPP) construction projects tend to be large and expensive, sometimes with high cost overruns far beyond those that might have been expected or predicted due to usual and recognized uncertainties and variations (e.g., in labor and materials costs combined with multiyear duration and complex construction logistics). This unaccounted for uncertainty brings the credibility of new NPP build projects into question and may prevent future projects from going forward. It is believed that the high initial capital cost of nuclear power is less of a hindering factor than the uncertainty about that cost. For nuclear power to regain credibility and enable future NPP construction projects, this unexpected uncertainty, or unknown unknown, needs to be assessed. Regular (expected) uncertainties (known unknowns) were addressed previously in a paper where the Iman-Conover method was used to account for correlated uncertainties. This paper addresses the impact of unexpected events (unknown unknowns), such as the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident. For this purpose, NPP construction in the United States is divided into two periods: pre-1979 (NPPs completed before the 1979 TMI-2 accident), and post-1979 (NPPs under construction when the accident happened and completed later). The latter group experienced significant schedule and budget overruns due to the change in regulation imposed after NPP construction was already under way. Analyzed a posteriori, this event and the escalated cost for the second group of NPPs was used to study the impact of a representative unexpected event.
An approach was developed to assess the range of potential risks, including those due to such unexpected events, and thus enable assigning appropriate contingencies. A traditional large four-loop pressurized water reactor [PWR12-Better Experience (BE)] was considered. With the inputs derived from the pre-1979 data, the expected total capital investment cost (TCIC) mean value for the PWR12-BE is found to be $3.3 billion, with a contingency of $1.3 billion, which corresponds to 39.4% of the TCIC mean. If the unknown unknowns are taken into account based on the post-1979 data, the TCIC mean value increases to $9.4 billion, with a cost contingency that is 108% of the TCIC mean derived for the pre-1979 NPPs.
Based on the experience-based assumed probability of unexpected events with large financial impact, it is then possible to derive an adequate contingency. The presented analysis offers a possible approach to treat unknown unknowns and to assess their impact on cost, providing the required contingency, as well as uncertainty in the construction time. In a broader context, this may provide quantitative tools to support making long-term energy policy decisions of new considered nuclear power projects.
