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The human factor in licensing and operating the next generation of nuclear plants
As human factors specialists working at the intersection of human performance and nuclear operations, we are witnessing one of the nuclear sector’s most significant transitions in decades. The emergence of small modular reactors, microreactors, and other advanced designs is reshaping the industry’s landscape. Digital instrumentation and controls, passive safety systems, and increased automation are creating opportunities for greater safety margins and more flexible operation. These same features also fundamentally redefine what it means to “operate” a nuclear plant. Interactions among human roles, automation, and passive systems shape how people maintain awareness, exercise judgment, and intervene when necessary. These developments affect both operational realities and the regulatory foundations on which nuclear safety is built.
Axel Hoefer, Oliver Buss, Michael Schmid
Nuclear Technology | Volume 205 | Number 12 | December 2019 | Pages 1578-1587
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.1080/00295450.2018.1560784
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
A general Bayesian framework for best-estimate plus uncertainty predictions of multidimensional continuous observables is presented. Parameterizing uncertainties in terms of multivariate normal distribution models, this Multivariate normal Bayesian model (MNBM) framework allows one to include both measured data and linear constraints in a mathematically consistent way. The resulting updating formulas are generalizations of the updating formulas of the Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) framework, which is widely used for the generation of adjusted nuclear data libraries. While the GLLS methodology is restricted to first-order perturbation theory, there is no such restriction for the considered MNBM framework. This makes it possible to use Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation and to apply the updating formulas directly to the observables of interest without having to first update the input parameter distributions. After a general presentation of the MNBM framework and a brief discussion of its possible applications, the generation of bounding burnup-dependent axial burnup profiles of light water reactor fuel assemblies for the purpose of criticality safety analysis is discussed as an example application.