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Conference Spotlight
2025 ANS Winter Conference & Expo
November 9–12, 2025
Washington, DC|Washington Hilton
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The Standards Committee is responsible for the development and maintenance of voluntary consensus standards that address the design, analysis, and operation of components, systems, and facilities related to the application of nuclear science and technology. Find out What’s New, check out the Standards Store, or Get Involved today!
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IAEA again raises global nuclear power projections
Noting recent momentum behind nuclear power, the International Atomic Energy Agency has revised up its projections for the expansion of nuclear power, estimating that global nuclear operational capacity will more than double by 2050—reaching 2.6 times the 2024 level—with small modular reactors expected to play a pivotal role in this high-case scenario.
IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the new projections, contained in the annual report Energy, Electricity, and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 at the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna.
In the report’s high-case scenario, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to from 377 GW at the end of 2024 to 992 GW by 2050. In a low-case scenario, capacity rises 50 percent, compared with 2024, to 561 GW. SMRs are projected to account for 24 percent of the new capacity added in the high case and for 5 percent in the low case.
Tai-Hung Wu, De-Cheng Chen
Nuclear Technology | Volume 205 | Number 6 | June 2019 | Pages 867-880
Technical Note | doi.org/10.1080/00295450.2018.1533320
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Station blackout (SBO) sequences for a Westinghouse-designed three-loop pressurized water reactor (PWR) with large dry containment are investigated. Recovery of alternating-current power is considered under two separate headings in event trees of loss of off-site power: recovery of the off-site power and recovery of the emergency diesel generators (EDGs) or diesel generator 5. A reactor coolant pump seal leakage model under SBO conditions for a Westinghouse PWR with high-temperature O-rings is used. Seal failure mechanisms, including popping open, binding, and O-ring extrusion, are considered. Success criteria are established based on the results of thermal-hydraulic calculations via the MELCOR and/or RELAP-5 codes. Furthermore, the WinNUPRA software package is used for sequence quantification.
Three primary models are addressed: Basic, WOG2000, and Ultimate Response Guideline (URG). The core damage frequency (CDF) of SBO sequences for the Basic model is found to be very optimistic and underestimated. The improvement on CDF by introducing the URG model is found to be dependent primarily on the reliability of plant operators in performing the procedure URG under SBO situations.
Two sensitivity analyses on the passive shutdown seal (PSDS) are performed: WOG2000 (PSDS) and URG (PSDS). The low-failure-probability PSDS results in a >94% improvement in CDF due to SBO since the CDF contribution from long-term SBO sequences becomes negligible. Furthermore, the URG strategies are shown to have a significant impact on the reduction of CDF since seal leakage is no longer a concern in the presence of the PSDS.
The way that power recovered is distinguished from off-site power or on-site EDGs and the way that SBO CDF is assessed make the present study more realistic than general SBO models.
A key analysis of the confidence bands of the SBO CDF with the aid of the uncertainty measure is also performed to observe the induced effects by the probabilistic seal failure modes and PSDS.