ANS is committed to advancing, fostering, and promoting the development and application of nuclear sciences and technologies to benefit society.
Explore the many uses for nuclear science and its impact on energy, the environment, healthcare, food, and more.
Division Spotlight
Decommissioning & Environmental Sciences
The mission of the Decommissioning and Environmental Sciences (DES) Division is to promote the development and use of those skills and technologies associated with the use of nuclear energy and the optimal management and stewardship of the environment, sustainable development, decommissioning, remediation, reutilization, and long-term surveillance and maintenance of nuclear-related installations, and sites. The target audience for this effort is the membership of the Division, the Society, and the public at large.
Meeting Spotlight
2025 ANS Annual Conference
June 15–18, 2025
Chicago, IL|Chicago Marriott Downtown
Standards Program
The Standards Committee is responsible for the development and maintenance of voluntary consensus standards that address the design, analysis, and operation of components, systems, and facilities related to the application of nuclear science and technology. Find out What’s New, check out the Standards Store, or Get Involved today!
Latest Magazine Issues
Jun 2025
Jan 2025
Latest Journal Issues
Nuclear Science and Engineering
July 2025
Nuclear Technology
Fusion Science and Technology
Latest News
Smarter waste strategies: Helping deliver on the promise of advanced nuclear
At COP28, held in Dubai in 2023, a clear consensus emerged: Nuclear energy must be a cornerstone of the global clean energy transition. With electricity demand projected to soar as we decarbonize not just power but also industry, transport, and heat, the case for new nuclear is compelling. More than 20 countries committed to tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050. In the United States alone, the Department of Energy forecasts that the country’s current nuclear capacity could more than triple, adding 200 GW of new nuclear to the existing 95 GW by mid-century.
Sumeet Chhibber, George E. Apostolakis, David Okrent
Nuclear Technology | Volume 105 | Number 1 | January 1994 | Pages 87-103
Technical Paper | Special on Nuclear Criticality Safety / Nuclear Reactor Safety | doi.org/10.13182/NT94-A34913
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
The use of expert judgments in probabilistic risk assessments has become common. Simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases and interexpert dependence are often neglected. Sophisticated theoretical models for the use of expert opinions have been proposed that offer ways of incorporating expert biases and dependence, but they have not found wide acceptance because of the difficulty and rigor of these methods. Practical guidance on the use of the versatile Bayesian expert judgment aggregation model is provided. In particular, the case study of pressure increment due to vessel breach in the Sequoyah nuclear power plant is chosen to illustrate how phenomenological uncertainty can be addressed by using the Bayesian aggregation model. The results indicate that the Bayesian aggregation model is a suitable candidate model for aggregating expert judgments, especially if there is phenomenological uncertainty. Phenomenological uncertainty can be represented through the dependence parameter of the Bayesian model. This is because the sharing of assumptions by the experts tends to introduce dependence between the experts. The extent of commonality in the experts’ beliefs can be characterized by assessing their interdependence. The results indicate that uncertainty is possibly underestimated by ignoring dependence. Two Bayesian approaches are used. The first approach uses the experts’ opinions as evidence to update the decision maker’s state of knowledge. The second approach, in recognition of the fact that the experts are highly dependent on a common information source, assumes that the common information source is the actual expert and the participants are assessing its biases and credibility. The results lend validity to the use of weighted averaging schemes because the Bayesian aggregation method encompasses simple arithmetic and geometric averaging techniques.