ANS is committed to advancing, fostering, and promoting the development and application of nuclear sciences and technologies to benefit society.
Explore the many uses for nuclear science and its impact on energy, the environment, healthcare, food, and more.
Explore membership for yourself or for your organization.
Conference Spotlight
2026 ANS Annual Conference
May 31–June 3, 2026
Denver, CO|Sheraton Denver
Latest Magazine Issues
Jan 2026
Jul 2025
Latest Journal Issues
Nuclear Science and Engineering
February 2026
Nuclear Technology
January 2026
Fusion Science and Technology
November 2025
Latest News
Jeff Place on INPO’s strategy for industry growth
As executive vice president for industry strategy at the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations, Jeff Place leads INPO’s industry-facing work, engaging directly with chief nuclear officers.
Nathan Siu, Ali Mosleh
Nuclear Technology | Volume 84 | Number 3 | March 1989 | Pages 265-281
Technical Paper | Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Risk Management / Nuclear Safety | doi.org/10.13182/NT89-A34210
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Uncertainties in the estimation of parameters for common-cause failure models arise not only because of the small number of common-cause failure events but also because recorded events may not be relevant to the analysis of a particular plant. The data base for a plant-specific analysis may therefore be uncertain. A Bayesian methodology for treating data base uncertainties in the estimation of common-cause failure model parameters is developed and applied to a three-pump auxiliary feedwater system. Sensitivity analyses show that the results are not strongly sensitive to assumptions concerning prior distribution type and shape, but do depend somewhat on the degree of state-of-knowledge dependence between uncertain events. These analyses also show that ignoring the uncertainties in the data can lead to significant estimation errors. Finally, an approximate methodology for treating uncertain data is examined; this method provides reasonable estimates of the mean values of the common-cause failure model parameters, but underpredicts the uncertainty in these parameters.