A method for the assessment of risk involved in shipping toxic compounds past nuclear power plants uses a postulated chain of events, starting with a traffic accident causing instantaneous release of the compound as vapor, and leading to incapacitation of control operators in the nuclear plant, described by deterministic and statistical models as appropriate to the respective event. Statistical treatment of relevant atmospheric conditions is a major improvement over more conservative assumptions commonly made in current analyses of this problem. Consequently, one obtains a substantial reduction in the estimated risk expressed in usual terms of the annual probability of an unacceptable event, in spite of the fact that no credit is taken for protective measures other than potential control room isolation.