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The spark of the Super: Teller–Ulam and the birth of the H-bomb—rivalry, credit, and legacy at 75 years
In early 1951, Los Alamos scientists Edward Teller and Stanislaw Ulam devised a breakthrough that would lead to the hydrogen bomb [1]. Their design gave the United States an initial advantage in the Cold War, though comparable progress was soon achieved independently in the Soviet Union and the United Kingdom.
Vincent Philip Paglioni, Katrina M. Groth
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 198 | Number 8 | August 2024 | Pages 1645-1667
Research Article | doi.org/10.1080/00295639.2023.2250159
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Human reliability analysis (HRA) is approaching nearly 60 years of reliance on key aspects of the original HRA method Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP), including its process for analyzing dependency. Despite advances in computational abilities and HRA-relevant techniques, the conceptualization, modeling, and quantification of dependency have remained largely unchanged since the introduction of THERP. As a result, current HRA methods do not consider dependency in a realistic manner, and there remain foundational gaps related to the definition, lack of causality, and quantification for HRA dependency. In this paper, we review the current conceptualization of dependency and demonstrate that current research in dependency is not addressing all of the technical gaps. To address the outstanding technical gaps in HRA dependency, we propose a set of fundamental dependency structures (HRA dependency idioms) that capture the spectrum of relationships possible between HRA variables. The idioms provide a robust logical structure for HRA dependency that emphasizes causality and is based on a causal Bayesian network modeling architecture. The idioms conceptualize and model HRA dependency in an objective, traceable, and causally informed manner that facilitates data-based quantification of HRA dependency.