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On moving fast and breaking things
Craig Piercycpiercy@ans.org
So much of what is happening in federal nuclear policy these days seems driven by a common approach popularized in the technology sector. Silicon Valley calls it “move fast and break things,” a phrase originally associated with Facebook’s early culture under Mark Zuckerberg. The idea emerged in the early 2000s as software companies discovered that rapid iteration, frequent experimentation, and a willingness to tolerate failure could dramatically accelerate innovation. This philosophy helped drive the growth of the social media, smartphones, cloud computing, and digital platforms that now underpin modern economic and social life.
Today, that mindset is also influencing federal nuclear policy. The Trump administration views accelerated nuclear deployment as part of a broader competition with China for technological and AI leadership. In that context, it seems willing to accept greater operational risk in pursuit of strategic advantage and long-term economic and security objectives.
Michael Y. Hua, Jesson D. Hutchinson, George E. McKenzie, Tony H. Shin, Shaun D. Clarke, Sara A. Pozzi
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 194 | Number 1 | January 2020 | Pages 56-68
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.1080/00295639.2019.1654327
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Rossi-alpha measurements of fissionable assemblies are used to estimate the prompt neutron decay constant α. Reactivity can be inferred from α if the values of the neutron generation time and effective delayed neutron fraction are assumed. If multiple measurements are performed on an assembly near delayed critical, one can determine α at delayed critical and directly infer reactivity (without needing to assume values for the neutron generation time or effective delayed neutron fraction). Previous works have demonstrated that two-exponential fits for Rossi-alpha measurements of reflected assemblies have better fit metrics than those of one-exponential fits; however, the two-exponential probability density function that is needed to obtain α from the fit parameters has not been derived. This paper derives the two-exponential fit based on a two-region point kinetics model for Rossi-alpha measurements of reflected assemblies, a generalization of the current, one-region model (one-exponential fit). The new model is validated for shielded assemblies, a special case of reflected assemblies where the reflector-to-core leakage is negligibly small. The validation is performed using shielded, fissionable assemblies (highly enriched uranium with keff ≈ 0.95 and weapons-grade plutonium with keff > 0.77). The results show that the two-exponential model can (1) predict the constant α within two standard deviations, and (2) deconvolve α and the time a neutron spends in the reflector region, neither of which is possible with the one-exponential model.