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Front-end nuclear fuel supply cooperation: Turning allied interdependence into strategic advantage
The global nuclear revival, which is fueled by unprecedented demand for firm, affordable, dispatchable power for artificial intelligence and data center build-out, energy security imperatives, and climate commitments, has exposed a structural reality of the Western fuel cycle: No single allied nation currently possesses the full suite of front-end capabilities. From mining through conversion, enrichment, fabrication, and the emerging deconversion and metallization steps required for reactor fuels, capability is distributed across Canada, France, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States (collectively, the “Sapporo Five”), as well as a small group of close partners.
François Bachoc, Karim Ammar, Jean-Marc Martinez
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 183 | Number 3 | July 2016 | Pages 387-406
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE15-108
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
It is now common practice in nuclear engineering to base extensive studies on numerical computer models. These studies require running computer codes in potentially thousands of numerical configurations and without expert individual controls on the computational and physical aspects of each simulation. In this paper, we compare different statistical metamodeling techniques and show how metamodels can help improve the global behavior of codes in these extensive studies. We consider the metamodeling of the Germinal thermomechanical code by Kriging, kernel regression, and neural networks. Kriging provides the most accurate predictions, while neural networks yield the fastest metamodel functions. All three metamodels can conveniently detect strong computation failures. However, it is more challenging to detect code instabilities, that is, groups of computations that are all valid but numerically inconsistent with one another. For code instability detection, we find that Kriging provides an interesting tool.