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Front-end nuclear fuel supply cooperation: Turning allied interdependence into strategic advantage
The global nuclear revival, which is fueled by unprecedented demand for firm, affordable, dispatchable power for artificial intelligence and data center build-out, energy security imperatives, and climate commitments, has exposed a structural reality of the Western fuel cycle: No single allied nation currently possesses the full suite of front-end capabilities. From mining through conversion, enrichment, fabrication, and the emerging deconversion and metallization steps required for reactor fuels, capability is distributed across Canada, France, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States (collectively, the “Sapporo Five”), as well as a small group of close partners.
D. Neudecker, R. Capote, D. L. Smith, T. Burr, P. Talou
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 179 | Number 4 | April 2015 | Pages 381-397
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE14-6
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Low evaluated uncertainties compared to experimental information and a strong model impact were observed in some prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) evaluations that include mean values and covariances stemming from a rigid model. Here, we show by studying the 239Pu PFNS ENDF/B-VII.1 evaluation via generalized least-squares analyses that strong model correlations in combination with the normalization condition on the estimated PFNS and its covariances result in surprisingly low evaluated uncertainties. Furthermore, the model changes the evaluated results by >1σ of combined experimental uncertainties near the average outgoing neutron energy (~2 MeV). We show both analytically and by means of representative numerical examples that the normalization condition on the spectrum and its covariances naturally leads to uncertainties reduced by a fully positively correlated scaling uncertainty.