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Conference Spotlight
2025 ANS Winter Conference & Expo
November 9–12, 2025
Washington, DC|Washington Hilton
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IAEA again raises global nuclear power projections
Noting recent momentum behind nuclear power, the International Atomic Energy Agency has revised up its projections for the expansion of nuclear power, estimating that global nuclear operational capacity will more than double by 2050—reaching 2.6 times the 2024 level—with small modular reactors expected to play a pivotal role in this high-case scenario.
IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the new projections, contained in the annual report Energy, Electricity, and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 at the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna.
In the report’s high-case scenario, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to from 377 GW at the end of 2024 to 992 GW by 2050. In a low-case scenario, capacity rises 50 percent, compared with 2024, to 561 GW. SMRs are projected to account for 24 percent of the new capacity added in the high case and for 5 percent in the low case.
Hany S. Abdel-Khalik, Paul J. Turinsky, Matthew A. Jessee
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 159 | Number 3 | July 2008 | Pages 256-272
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE159-256
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
This paper introduces the concepts and derives the mathematical theory of efficient subspace methods (ESMs) applied to the simulation of large-scale complex models, of which nuclear reactor simulation will serve as a test basis. ESMs are intended to advance the capabilities of predictive simulation to meet the functional requirements of future energy system simulation and overcome the inadequacies of current design methods. Some of the inadequacies addressed by ESM include lack of rigorous approach to perform comprehensive validation of the multitudes of models and input data used in the design calculations and lack of robust mathematical approaches to enhance fidelity of existing and advanced computational codes. To accomplish these tasks, the computational tools must be capable of performing the following three applications with both accuracy and efficiency: (a) sensitivity analysis of key system attributes with respect to various input data; (b) uncertainty quantification for key system attributes; and (c) adaptive simulation, also known as data assimilation, for adapting existing models based on the assimilated body of experimental information to achieve the best possible prediction accuracy. These three applications, involving large-scale computational models, are now considered computationally infeasible if both the input data and key system attributes or experimental information fields are large. This paper will develop the mathematical theory of ESM-based algorithms for these three applications. The treatment in this paper is based on linearized approximation of the associated computational models. Extension to higher-order approximations represents the focus of our ongoing research.