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Going Nuclear: Notes from the officially unofficial book tour
I work in the analytical labs at one of Europe’s oldest and largest nuclear sites: Sellafield, in northwestern England. I spend my days at the fume hood front, pipette in one hand and radiation probe in the other (and dosimeter pinned to my chest, of course). Outside the lab, I have a second job: I moonlight as a writer and public speaker. My new popular science book—Going Nuclear: How the Atom Will Save the World—came out last summer, and it feels like my life has been running at full power ever since.
S. C. Hora, R. L. Iman
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 102 | Number 4 | August 1989 | Pages 323-331
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE89-A23645
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Risk analysis of nuclear power generation often requires the use of expert opinion to provide probabilistic inputs where other sources of information are unavailable or are not cost effective. In the Reactor Risk Reference Document (NUREG-1150), a methodology for the collection of expert opinion was developed. Earlier criticisms pointed out the need to establish principles for the collection and use of expert opinion. These principles include selection of experts to promote diversity of opinion, the use of state-of-the-art methods of probability elicitation including debiasing training, communication of findings through complete and clear documentation, and the preservation of the inherent uncertainty in the findings. The resulting methodology involves a ten-step process: selection of experts, selection of issues, preparation of issue statements, elicitation training, preparation of expert analyses by panel members, discussion of analyses, elicitation, recomposition and aggregation, and review by the panel members. These steps were implemented in a multiple meeting format that brought together experts from a variety of work places. The elicitation of the experts’ opinions was performed by teams versed in decision analysis and in the particular aspects of power plant safety being investigated.