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IEA report describes nuclear growth and need for grid flexibility
The Paris-based International Energy Agency released its annual report on global electricity systems and markets on February 6, showing the output of nuclear energy at record levels in 2025. According to Electricity 2026, nuclear energy together with renewable energy sources (mainly solar) will generate about half of all global electricity by 2030, up from 42 percent today.
Kaushik Banerjee, William R. Martin
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 174 | Number 1 | May 2013 | Pages 30-45
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE11-94
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Monte Carlo point detector and surface crossing flux tallies are two widely used tallies, but they suffer from an unbounded variance. As a result, the central limit theorem cannot be used for these tallies to estimate confidence intervals. By construction, kernel density estimator (KDE) tallies can be directly used to estimate flux at a point, but the variance of this point estimate does not converge as 1/N, which is not unexpected for a point quantity. However, an improved approach is to modify both point detector and surface crossing flux tallies directly by using KDE within a variance reduction approach and taking advantage of the fact that KDE estimates the underlying probability density function. This methodology is illustrated by several numerical examples and shows numerically that both the surface crossing tally and the point detector tally converge as 1/N (in variance), and both are asymptotically unbiased.