ANS is committed to advancing, fostering, and promoting the development and application of nuclear sciences and technologies to benefit society.
Explore the many uses for nuclear science and its impact on energy, the environment, healthcare, food, and more.
Explore membership for yourself or for your organization.
Conference Spotlight
2026 ANS Annual Conference
May 31–June 3, 2026
Denver, CO|Sheraton Denver
Latest Magazine Issues
Apr 2026
Jan 2026
Latest Journal Issues
Nuclear Science and Engineering
May 2026
Nuclear Technology
February 2026
Fusion Science and Technology
Latest News
DTRA’s advancements in nuclear and radiological detection
A new, more complex nuclear age has begun. Echoing the tensions of the Cold War amid rapidly evolving nuclear and radiological threats, preparedness in the modern age is a contest of scientific innovation. The Research and Development Directorate (RD) at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) is charged with winning this contest.
Scott D. Ramsey, Gregory J. Hutchens
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 173 | Number 2 | February 2013 | Pages 197-205
Technical Note | doi.org/10.13182/NSE11-34
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
A quantity that is frequently of interest in stochastic neutronics calculations is the probability of extinction (POE), or its complement, the survival probability. Even within the simplest stochastic point kinetics formulations, the POE is typically extracted from numerical calculations or approximated. An example of the latter strategy involves the truncation of the fission multiplicity distribution at two, resulting in the “quadratic approximation.” While this methodology yields closed-form results for the POE, it is valid only for supercritical multiplication near unity. In this technical note, we attempt to obviate fission multiplicity truncation in the construction of transient and infinite time limit closed-form POE solutions. In the infinite time limit, we arrive at the necessity of solving a quintic algebraic equation; we provide a brief discussion of the mature formalism available for solving quintic equations and generate a variety of simple representations using hypergeometric series. We evaluate and discuss both the new and existing approximations in the context of an example 235U system and compare their validity over a range of supercritical multiplication factors.