The London-based World Nuclear Association (WNA) on September 23 released The World Nuclear Supply Chain: Outlook 2040, a market-oriented look at the opportunities and challenges for nuclear power plants and their supply chain, including scenarios for the evolution of nuclear energy over the next two decades.
The report provides information on nearly 300 major independent suppliers of nuclear-grade structures, systems, components, and services, as well as an up-to-date picture of ongoing and planned nuclear plant construction, decommissioning, and major refurbishment and waste management projects.
The report, which is free to WNA member organizations, is available for purchase here for £475 (about $605).
■ At the end of 2019, there were 442 operable commercial nuclear power reactors around the world and 50 under construction. There are specific plans for another 109 power reactors. Nuclear power worldwide generates sales revenues worth around $300 billion a year for electricity utilities.
■ Of the 321 new reactors expected to come on line between 2019 and 2040 in the report’s reference scenario, 82 are projected to be built in the OECD countries, 134 in China, 25 in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and 42 in India. In the upper scenario, some 467 new reactors are completed by 2040, with 114 in the OECD countries, 207 in China, 33 in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and 50 in India.
■ Under the reference scenario, revenues from operating nuclear plants are expected to grow at 2.0 percent annually over the coming two decades to reach some $460 billion by 2040, with 68 percent of the growth occurring in the emerging industrial economies (the non-OECD area, including China).
■ The value of the capital expenditure in new nuclear build to 2040 is on the order of $972 billion in the reference scenario and $1.68 trillion in the upper scenario. Of these totals, international projects could amount to $475 billion and $870 billion in the reference and upper scenarios, respectively.
■ The value of on-going new construction has been about $220 billion worldwide, of which about $6 billion to $10 billion a year consists of international procurement for goods and services—or between one-fifth and one-quarter of the total value of all projects.
■ The total value of work for long-term operation could amount to some $50 billion to $100 billion. This could amount to around $4 billion a year of international procurement.
■ The market for decommissioning is also substantial. The value of decommissioning work on projects involving immediate dismantling by 2040 could total almost $150 billion.
Quote: “Nuclear power is a vital component of future energy plans,” said Agneta Rising, the WNA’s director general. “The World Nuclear Supply Chain: Outlook 2040 report sets out the economic value of the nuclear power industry today. It also makes clear the potential scale of investment in nuclear energy needed. This investment will deliver clean electricity supplies, put billions into local economies, and generate hundreds of thousands of jobs.”