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New York publishes paper on new nuclear options, launches Nuclear Reliability Backbone
New York’s ambitious efforts to add at least 5 gigawatts of new nuclear power raise several questions: How much will it cost the state, the federal government, and ratepayers? Where does private investment fit into the picture? What nuclear reactor designs should developers pursue?
To provide clarity and direction to these and other concerns, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority and Department of Public Service issued the preliminary draft of its advanced nuclear policy options paper on June 12.
Seyed Mohsen Hoseyni, Mohammad Pourgol-Mohammad
Nuclear Technology | Volume 193 | Number 3 | March 2016 | Pages 341-363
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NT15-47
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
The influence of model uncertainty is most pronounced in areas of limited knowledge and large uncertainties like severe accident (SA) calculations. Lack of a systematic methodology for this purpose makes this assessment difficult. This paper describes the treatment of model uncertainty in SA analysis for nuclear power plants, which is an area that has had limited past research. This paper aims at a systematic subject assessment. By review of available approaches, a methodology is structured to deal with alternative modeling options in SA code structure. The proposed methodology comprises three phases: the probability of each model is estimated (phase 1), the input uncertainty is quantified (phase 2), and the Bayesian model averaging technique is utilized to integrate the calculations of alternative models into the SA code (phase 3). Through this process, the degree of belief is quantified for the performance of alternative code models. The methodology evaluates available information and data from experiments and code predictions. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on fission product release models for the LP-FP-2 SA experiment of the LOFT (Loss-of-Fluid Test) facility.