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MIT professor develops method to verify compliance with Outer Space Treaty
Danagoulian
Areg Danagoulian of the Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is proposing a mechanism for verifying that Earth-orbiting satellites are in compliance with the Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits the placement of nuclear weapons in space. Danagoulian’s “concept and feasibility study,” titled “Verification of the Outer Space Treaty with cosmic protons,” was published recently in the journal Nature.
Enrica Belfiore, Federico Grimaldi, Luca Fiorito, Pablo Romojaro, Gašper Žerovnik, Pierre-Etienne Labeau, Sandra Dulla
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 199 | Number 1 | April 2025 | Pages S836-S857
Research Article | doi.org/10.1080/00295639.2024.2323217
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Monte Carlo sampling is frequently employed for uncertainty quantification in depletion calculations. Several assumptions are needed to perform this analysis. In this work, an assessment of these assumptions is proposed via sample convergence studies and perturbation of the sampling distribution. The Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modeling (UAM) Pincell Hot Full Power and the Turkey Point reference cases were considered for this purpose. The 235U thermal independent fission yield uncertainties evaluated in JEFF-3.3 and JEFF-4.0 were propagated to the nuclide vector and to the system multiplication factor. Using JEFF-4.0 data, a 75% reduction in the uncertainty of selected nuclide concentrations and an 80% reduction in the multiplication factor uncertainty were observed, showcasing the effect of full covariance evaluations. The presented results also prove that the uncertainty in the considered observables shows marginal dependence on the sampling distribution.