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Diversification and the common ground
Craig Piercycpiercy@ans.org
Who would have thought, just a few years ago, that we would see so many long-standing barriers to new nuclear development falling like dominoes? Public opinion, policy, regulatory reform, finance and investment, design maturity, nuclear fuel enrichment, and fuel fabrication capacity have all advanced with remarkable speed in the United States.
Conventional wisdom holds that the most effective way to scale up the nuclear supply chain is to do so strategically, matching investments to the needs of reactor developers.
Michael Pietrykowski, Mark R. Scott
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 199 | Number 1 | January 2025 | Pages 151-161
Research Article | doi.org/10.1080/00295639.2024.2344957
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Age dating a sample of nuclear material is a key part of predetonation technical nuclear forensics. As plutonium stockpiles age, they are more likely to require repurification and mixing to remove in-grown daughter products and maintain a consistent product. Existing age-dating techniques do not adequately address this problem. Four models were trained using machine learning techniques to determine (1) if a sample of weapons-grade plutonium had been repurified, (2) the elapsed time after repurification, and (3) the minimum and maximum elapsed times between repurification and its initial separation/purification/fabrication. The trained models predicted the repurification status with 99% accuracy, the age after repurification with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.34 years, and the minimum and maximum ages before repurification with RMSEs of 4.66 and 9.34 years, respectively. Age dating plutonium provides valuable insight into the country and possibly the facility of origin of the material, which is one tool to deter state-sponsored nuclear terrorism.