ANS is committed to advancing, fostering, and promoting the development and application of nuclear sciences and technologies to benefit society.
Explore the many uses for nuclear science and its impact on energy, the environment, healthcare, food, and more.
Explore membership for yourself or for your organization.
Conference Spotlight
2026 Nuclear Energy Conference & Expo (NECX)
August 24–27, 2026
Dallas, TX|Hilton Anatole
Latest Magazine Issues
Jul 2026
Jan 2026
2026
Latest Journal Issues
Nuclear Science and Engineering
September 2026
Nuclear Technology
August 2026
Fusion Science and Technology
Latest News
In transition: Commercializing fusion power
Commercial fusion power is closer than ever. There are now around 30 U.S. fusion companies, several of which claim to be on track to connect to the grid as early as the 2030s.
Tokamak and laser inertial confinement approaches benefit from decades of research at facilities such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and ITER, with alternative concepts including stellarator, magnetic mirror, and Z-pinch confinement also making notable progress as private and government funding for fusion increases.
Enrique Castillo, Cristina Solares, Patricia Gómez
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 126 | Number 2 | June 1997 | Pages 158-167
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE97-A24469
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
A new method is presented for propagating uncertainties in complex nuclear power plant safety system fault tree models. The method is especially useful for estimating extreme percentiles and high-probability one-sided confidence intervals of the system unavailability. Likelihood weighing simulation methods, which assign a score to each sample point (x1,... ,xn) to compensate for the differences between the sample and the parent distributions, are used to directly simulate the adequate tail distribution of the probability of the fault tree top event. The polynomial structure of the probability of the top event is exploited to sequentially find upper and lower bounds to simulate each of the basic variables, without the need to invert the polynomial expression. The performance of the proposed method is spectacular when compared with the standard Monte Carlo simulation for tails. Finally, one example of application to a real case is used to illustrate the whole simulation process.