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Front-end nuclear fuel supply cooperation: Turning allied interdependence into strategic advantage
The global nuclear revival, which is fueled by unprecedented demand for firm, affordable, dispatchable power for artificial intelligence and data center build-out, energy security imperatives, and climate commitments, has exposed a structural reality of the Western fuel cycle: No single allied nation currently possesses the full suite of front-end capabilities. From mining through conversion, enrichment, fabrication, and the emerging deconversion and metallization steps required for reactor fuels, capability is distributed across Canada, France, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States (collectively, the “Sapporo Five”), as well as a small group of close partners.
Enrique Castillo, Cristina Solares, Patricia Gómez
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 126 | Number 2 | June 1997 | Pages 158-167
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE97-A24469
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
A new method is presented for propagating uncertainties in complex nuclear power plant safety system fault tree models. The method is especially useful for estimating extreme percentiles and high-probability one-sided confidence intervals of the system unavailability. Likelihood weighing simulation methods, which assign a score to each sample point (x1,... ,xn) to compensate for the differences between the sample and the parent distributions, are used to directly simulate the adequate tail distribution of the probability of the fault tree top event. The polynomial structure of the probability of the top event is exploited to sequentially find upper and lower bounds to simulate each of the basic variables, without the need to invert the polynomial expression. The performance of the proposed method is spectacular when compared with the standard Monte Carlo simulation for tails. Finally, one example of application to a real case is used to illustrate the whole simulation process.