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In transition: Commercializing fusion power
Commercial fusion power is closer than ever. There are now around 30 U.S. fusion companies, several of which claim to be on track to connect to the grid as early as the 2030s.
Tokamak and laser inertial confinement approaches benefit from decades of research at facilities such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and ITER, with alternative concepts including stellarator, magnetic mirror, and Z-pinch confinement also making notable progress as private and government funding for fusion increases.
S. C. Hora, R. L. Iman
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 102 | Number 4 | August 1989 | Pages 323-331
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE89-A23645
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Risk analysis of nuclear power generation often requires the use of expert opinion to provide probabilistic inputs where other sources of information are unavailable or are not cost effective. In the Reactor Risk Reference Document (NUREG-1150), a methodology for the collection of expert opinion was developed. Earlier criticisms pointed out the need to establish principles for the collection and use of expert opinion. These principles include selection of experts to promote diversity of opinion, the use of state-of-the-art methods of probability elicitation including debiasing training, communication of findings through complete and clear documentation, and the preservation of the inherent uncertainty in the findings. The resulting methodology involves a ten-step process: selection of experts, selection of issues, preparation of issue statements, elicitation training, preparation of expert analyses by panel members, discussion of analyses, elicitation, recomposition and aggregation, and review by the panel members. These steps were implemented in a multiple meeting format that brought together experts from a variety of work places. The elicitation of the experts’ opinions was performed by teams versed in decision analysis and in the particular aspects of power plant safety being investigated.