The use of equilibrium models for the analysis of metal-water explosions is examined. A theoretical thermal interaction model is then developed that uses the results of basic experiments on transient energy transfer from hot surfaces under water to predict the pressures produced in a metal-water thermal explosion. The model calculates the pressure resulting from energy transfer to a nonequilibrium two-phase coolant expanding in a shock-tube geometry. It is shown that the pressure depends greatly on the distribution of energy between vapor and liquid phases of the coolant and that, in the range of experimentally determined distributions where ∼10% of the flux produces evaporation, the pressure is more sensitive to the effective vapor generation rate than to the total flux. Using experimental energy distributions as input data and assuming that the interaction surface area is that determined from analysis of explosion debris, it is shown that the model predicts successfully the peak pressures resulting from two aluminum-water explosions. The results give some confidence that the surface area present at the time of an interaction is of the same order as that of the solidified debris. To predict the results of a thermal interaction in other fluids, however, in addition to the surface-area problem it may be necessary to obtain experimental information about the distribution of energy in the coolant, particularly the effective rate of vapor generation.