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In transition: Commercializing fusion power
Commercial fusion power is closer than ever. There are now around 30 U.S. fusion companies, several of which claim to be on track to connect to the grid as early as the 2030s.
Tokamak and laser inertial confinement approaches benefit from decades of research at facilities such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and ITER, with alternative concepts including stellarator, magnetic mirror, and Z-pinch confinement also making notable progress as private and government funding for fusion increases.
H. F. Martz, M. C. Bryson
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 83 | Number 2 | February 1983 | Pages 267-280
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE83-A18219
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Probabilistic risk assessments are increasingly being used to quantify the public risks of operating potentially hazardous systems such as nuclear power reactors. Such assessments require the quantification of the frequencies of various low-probability events. In performing these analyses, the risk analyst is often confronted with the dual problem of the appropriate data to be used to estimate the required frequencies and the development of the corresponding estimates. Often the problem reduces to one of how to combine (or pool) a variety of more or less applicable existing data sources. A Bayes/empirical-Bayes procedure is developed for combining as many as five different types of pertinent data. The five data types can be grouped under 1. analysis data, 2. similar operating data, 3. expert opinions, 4. historical operating data, 5. generic data. Example illustrations of each of these data types are given. The procedure is used to estimate the combined hourly failure rate of small manually operated sodium valves, such as those typically found in liquid-metal fast breeder reactor shutdown heat removal systems. Pertinent data sources include operating data from sodium test loops (similar operating data), expert opinion, operating data from the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II, and seven generic failure rate estimates for similar valves in both U.K. and U.S. operating light water power reactors. A final posterior distribution is produced that reflects the combined influence of all of these data. This distribution provides the required estimates and corresponding uncertainty bounds.