ANS is committed to advancing, fostering, and promoting the development and application of nuclear sciences and technologies to benefit society.
Explore the many uses for nuclear science and its impact on energy, the environment, healthcare, food, and more.
Explore membership for yourself or for your organization.
Conference Spotlight
2026 Nuclear Energy Conference & Expo (NECX)
August 24–27, 2026
Dallas, TX|Hilton Anatole
Latest Magazine Issues
Jun 2026
Jan 2026
2026
Latest Journal Issues
Nuclear Science and Engineering
July 2026
Nuclear Technology
June 2026
Fusion Science and Technology
May 2026
Latest News
Spent fuel recycling and conditioning topic of U.S.-Japan meeting
Officials with the Department of Energy’s Office of Environmental Management discussed spent nuclear fuel recycling and conditioning with counterparts from Japan during the 13th U.S.-Japan Technical Meeting of the Civil Nuclear Energy Research and Development Working Group, held recently in Santa Fe, N.M.
Scott D. Ramsey, Gregory J. Hutchens
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 173 | Number 2 | February 2013 | Pages 197-205
Technical Note | doi.org/10.13182/NSE11-34
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
A quantity that is frequently of interest in stochastic neutronics calculations is the probability of extinction (POE), or its complement, the survival probability. Even within the simplest stochastic point kinetics formulations, the POE is typically extracted from numerical calculations or approximated. An example of the latter strategy involves the truncation of the fission multiplicity distribution at two, resulting in the “quadratic approximation.” While this methodology yields closed-form results for the POE, it is valid only for supercritical multiplication near unity. In this technical note, we attempt to obviate fission multiplicity truncation in the construction of transient and infinite time limit closed-form POE solutions. In the infinite time limit, we arrive at the necessity of solving a quintic algebraic equation; we provide a brief discussion of the mature formalism available for solving quintic equations and generate a variety of simple representations using hypergeometric series. We evaluate and discuss both the new and existing approximations in the context of an example 235U system and compare their validity over a range of supercritical multiplication factors.