Carbon pebble rods are a promising candidate for use in high heat flux regions of magnetic fusion energy reactor walls. Under high (10 to 50 MW/m2) heat loads, carbon pebble rods release hot pebbles from the exposed surface, carrying away heat as the pebble rod surface recedes. In this work, we show that the surface recession rate during heating can be adjusted by changing the mechanical strength of the extruded rods, modifying the heat removal rate; this is accomplished here by varying the fill fraction of the inter-pebble matrix. A three-dimensional finite element model is presented that captures many experimental observations, including the sphere temperature and the surface recession rate. The model predicts that pebble release is caused by thermally driven crack propagation through the matrix and that the matrix strength against breaking is the single most important material parameter setting the pebble release rate; this prediction is supported by experimental results.