"Cannot establish causality": Why the study published in Nature Communications proves nothing regarding cancer mortality and proximity to nuclear power plants
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The American Nuclear Society (ANS), a nonprofit representing over 12,000 professionals in the fields of nuclear science and technology, issues the following response to "National Analysis of Cancer Mortality and Proximity to Nuclear Power Plants in the United States," by Yazan Alwadi, Petros Koutrakis, et al., published February 23, 2026, in Nature Communications (doi: 10.1038/s41467-026-69285-4):
Experts with ANS, including health physicists and radiation protection specialists, have reviewed the study published in Nature Communications purporting to show associations between residential proximity to nuclear power plants and elevated cancer mortality rates across U.S. counties from 2000 to 2018. This study contains fundamental methodological shortcomings, acknowledged by the authors themselves, that prevent it from supporting any credible scientific conclusions.
The Bottom Line:
This flawed ecological study does not advance our understanding of radiological risk. The authors themselves state that their findings "cannot establish causality" and that their study "does not include dosimetry," admissions that undermine the study's central premise and that ANS urges journalists and policymakers to weigh carefully.
Chris Wagner, chief executive officer of Eden Radioisotopes.
Inset: Fission Mo-99 process. (Images: Eden)
Chris Wagner has more than 40 years of experience in nuclear medicine, beginning as a clinical practitioner before moving into leadership roles at companies like Mallinckrodt (now Curium) and Nordion. His knowledge of both the clinical and the manufacturing sides of nuclear medicine laid the groundwork for helping to found Eden Radioisotopes, a start-up venture that intends to make diagnostic and therapeutic raw material medical isotopes like molybdenum-99 and lutetium-177.
Ronald E. Evans, the command module pilot for Apollo 17, performed a deep-space extravehicular activity (EVA) to retrieve a film canister during the mission’s return to Earth. At about 160,000 miles from Earth, it was the most distant spacewalk ever conducted in deep space under full-spectrum GCR. (Photo: NASA)
In commercial nuclear power, there has always been a deliberate tension between the regulator and the utility owner. The regulator fundamentally exists to protect the worker, and the utility, to make a profit. It is a win-win balance.
From the U.S. nuclear industry has emerged a brilliantly successful occupational nuclear safety record—largely the result of an ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) process that has driven exposure rates down to what only a decade ago would have been considered unthinkable. In the U.S. nuclear industry, the system has accomplished an excellent, nearly seamless process that succeeds to the benefit of both employee and utility owner.
Clockwise from top left: Calutron operators at their panels in the Y-12 plant at Oak Ridge, Tenn., the USS Nautilus SSN571, women working in a factory of the United States Radium Corporation, and the front face of the B Reactor at the Hanford site.
There is a critical knowledge gap regarding the health consequences of exposure to radiation received gradually over time. While there is a plethora of studies on the risks of adverse outcomes from both acute and high-dose exposures, including the landmark study of atomic bomb survivors, these are not characteristic of the chronic exposure to low-dose radiation encountered in occupational and public settings. In addition, smaller cohorts have limited numbers leading to reduced statistical power.