A focus on clean energy transition
Michigan-based consulting firm Ducker Carlisle has released a report that outlines projected developments and opportunities as well as potential problems in the global shift to cleaner power. Global Energy Transition Outlook predicts that market growth will happen not only in large-scale utility upgrades but also in small- and mid-scale electrification projects.
Nuclear power is projected to play an important role in market growth, but not as much as solar or wind. China is seen as dominating the nuclear, solar, and wind power sectors by 2030, according to the report.
Main conclusions: The report’s findings show that more than 60 percent of global electricity will come from renewable sources—largely solar and wind, followed by nuclear—by 2030. Data centers could be responsible for driving a 23 percent annual increase in U.S. power needs up to that time.
Three forecast scenarios based on different levels of U.S. government support for climate/clean energy goals are examined, with the findings that in any of these three possible government policy scenarios, energy from clean and renewable sources will surpass traditional sources by 2035 at the latest.
The report also notes that the growth of distributed commercial, industrial, and residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, together with pending technological advancements in such areas as battery storage, is creating “new opportunities for downstream players to integrate, manage, and maintain these systems.” These opportunities go beyond the traditional roles of simply delivering and maintaining physical components of the energy grid.
Nuclear growth: For nuclear energy, “a new generation of large-scale nuclear reactors is being built in several countries with enhanced features, and small modular reactors are under development,” according to the report. By 2030, nuclear will account for at least 9 percent of global electricity generation, making for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2 percent.
By contrast, solar PV will account for at least 17 percent of global electricity generation (19 percent CAGR), and wind will provide at least 13 percent (10 percent CAGR) by 2030.
Expansion in Asia: The report identifies key drivers of nuclear growth in China, which has committed to increasing its non–fossil fuel energy share to 20 percent by 2030.
By 2030, the Asia Pacific region, led by China, “will dominate solar PV, wind and nuclear generation,” the report predicts. By that time, Asia will have a total of 193 GWe of installed nuclear electricity generating capacity, and Asian capacity will reach 423 GWe by 2050. By contrast, the installed nuclear electricity generating capacity numbers for 2030 and 2050 will be, respectively, 110 GWe and 228 GWe in North America, and 148 GWe and 247 GWe in Europe.
Headwinds in Europe and America: The analysis points out that the European Union “is setting new renewable energy targets for 2040, though these plans face challenges due to differing views on including nuclear power in the renewable energy mix.”
In the United States, half of the nuclear generating capacity is more than 30 years old, and “major investments are required” to boost the nuclear sector, the report states. Another problem hampering the development of domestic energy projects is a slow project permitting process.
SMR hopes: SMRs are providing hope for the North American and European nuclear industries, according to the report. These advanced reactors are under development in the U.S. and Canada, and the European Commission “has proposed reforms under the net-zero industry act which calls for advancements in small modular reactors.”
