Yet, suddenly, here we are looking at 3 percent annual demand growth as far as the eye can see. According to a recent Grid Strategies report, the U.S. five-year load growth forecast has increased fivefold, from 23 GW to 128 GW, over the past two years.
As you will read further on, data centers and AI are a big factor in the uplift equation, but there are two others: manufacturing, specifically of semiconductor chips and batteries, and including oil and gas production; and electrification, which encompasses both residential and commercial EVs, heat pumps, water heaters, etc. Texas alone accounts for 43 GW of that 128‑GW bump, as it is seeing significant growth in all three drivers.
Of course, nothing happens in a vacuum, and it’s safe to expect there to be improvements in the overall efficiency in data centers and manufacturing techniques, but short of a breakthrough in quantum computing, it’s starting to seem like much of the low-hanging efficiency fruit has already been picked.
Then there is the Jevons paradox, the idea that as technology improves the efficiency of resource use, its overall consumption may actually increase rather than decrease. This happens because greater efficiency lowers the effective cost, which leads to increased demand and usage.
The underlying point is this: AI promises an era of productivity growth we have not seen since the advent of the PC in the 1980s. These periodic productivity waves tend to improve the prosperity of people and the overall position of our government’s (increasingly irresponsible) books. Now, energy—and specifically electricity—is the main governor on the throttle, the prime bottleneck for a better future.
What does this mean for nuclear? It means we must get things done: build commercial prototypes and then engineer a commercial scale-up of fission (and fusion) technologies that move us to an nth-of-a-kind cost that is competitive with other forms of energy.
Ultimately, in the blink of an eye, we have left the somewhat stable, low-growth, decarbonization-oriented era of the 2010s and early ’20s and have entered a new phase of robust demand growth driven by strategically important industries. America’s economic, technological, and geopolitical leadership faces serious threats if the power grid fails to meet rising demand.
