IAEA again raises global nuclear power projections

September 16, 2025, 3:00PMNuclear News

Noting recent momentum behind nuclear power, the International Atomic Energy Agency has revised up its projections for the expansion of nuclear power, estimating that global nuclear operational capacity will more than double by 2050—reaching 2.6 times the 2024 level—with small modular reactors expected to play a pivotal role in this high-case scenario.

IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the new projections, contained in the annual report Energy, Electricity, and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 at the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna.

In the report’s high-case scenario, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to from 377 GW at the end of 2024 to 992 GW by 2050. In a low-case scenario, capacity rises 50 percent, compared with 2024, to 561 GW. SMRs are projected to account for 24 percent of the new capacity added in the high case and for 5 percent in the low case.

This is the fifth consecutive year the IAEA has raised its power projections, having first revised up its annual projections in 2021 after Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident in 2011. Since then, the projection for the high case has increased by 25 percent, from 792 GW in 2021.

Quote: “The IAEA’s steadily rising annual projections underscore a growing global consensus: nuclear power is indispensable for achieving clean, reliable and sustainable energy for all,” Grossi said.

Assumptions: In making its projections, the IAEA considered all operating reactors, possible license renewals, planned shutdowns, power uprates to increase output levels, and plausible and ongoing construction projects foreseen for the next few decades. According to the IAEA, the report’s low and high projections reflect alternative, yet plausible, assumptions regarding the worldwide deployment of nuclear power.

The assumptions of the low-case projections are that current market, technology, and resource trends continue and that there are few changes in laws, policies, and regulations affecting nuclear power.

In the high case, the IAEA considered national intentions for expanding the use of nuclear power. The report states that the high-case projection remains both plausible and technically feasible and notes the possibility for capacity to exceed this estimate.

The report states that enabling factors, such as national policies, supporting investment, and workforce development, would be necessary to help facilitate reaching—or exceeding—the high case. While SMRs continue to attract a lot of interest from both embarking and expanding nuclear power countries, harmonized regulatory and industrial approaches will also be necessary for their successful and timely deployment, according to the agency.

Status report: The IAEA report highlights the following nuclear developments for 2024:

At the end of 2024, 417 nuclear power reactors were operational, with a global nuclear operational capacity of 377 GW.

In addition, 62 reactors with a total capacity of 64.4 GW were under construction, and 23 reactors with a total capacity of 19.7 GW were in suspended operation.

Six new nuclear power reactors with a total capacity of 6.8 GW were connected to the grid, and four reactors with a total capacity of 2.9 GW were retired. Two reactors with a total capacity of 1.6 GW restarted after suspended operation. Construction began on nine new reactors that are expected to add a total capacity of 10.1 GW.

Compared with 2023, total electricity production from all energy sources increased by about 3.4 percent, and electricity production from nuclear power reactors increased by 2.8 percent to 2,670 terawatt-hours.

Nuclear power accounted for 8.7 percent of total electricity production in 2024, a slight reduction, compared with nuclear electricity production in 2023.


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