Uranium prices rise in August. Could they top $100/lb next year?

Futures: Uranium futures sat at $76.60 per pound on September 2, according to the online analysis firm Trading Economics. Over the past month, the price has risen 7.21 percent but is still 3.77 percent lower than it was a year ago. Trading Economics’ prices are based on several financial instruments that track the benchmark market for uranium.

The analysis firm noted that uranium reached an all-time high price of $148.00 per pound in May 2007.

Tight uranium market: Forbes published an article on September 2 explaining that strong demand and supply disruptions have restored investor interest in uranium, which has outperformed most other commodities over the past month and could keep rising.

“Revived interest in nuclear power as a source of clean energy is providing the demand while operational problems at two of the world’s biggest uranium mines [are] crimping supply,” the article noted.

Cameco is expecting a production shortfall at its McArthur River mine, according to Forbes, while Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom has downgraded next year’s production estimates.

Further signs of a tight uranium market include “heavy speculative activity by commodity investment funds and a squeeze on small miners [that] have signed long-term supply contracts but might be forced into the short-term market to cover their contracts.”

Back to boom? Morgan Stanley is expecting a uranium price of $87.00 per pound before the end of the year, the Forbes article continued, and Citi is forecasting a price of $80.00 per pound by year-end and an increase to $100.00 per pound next year, with a possible peak of $125.00 per pound “if a bull market develops, returning uranium to a level not seen since the boom year of 2007.”

Citi is quoted as saying, “We expect uranium prices to stay elevated for the next two to three years, as a solid bull case has developed. The bullish risk [bias] for uranium prices is significant when combined with potential under delivery of uranium and increasing energy demand that incentivizes an increase in nuclear energy capacity.”